By Thomas E. Ricks and Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, May 7, 2001; Page A01

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is set to unveil sweeping changes in U.S. military strategy, including the formal abandonment of the "two major war" yardstick that for a decade has been used to determine the size of the military, Pentagon officials said yesterday.

Rumsfeld is scheduled to meet with President Bush this week, probably Wednesday, to seek final approval for the new U.S. strategy, which appears to involve some of the biggest changes in the U.S. military in a decade. Next week, he is to roll out the strategy publicly, perhaps with a White House announcement followed by congressional testimony, the officials said. The two-week campaign on defense issues will culminate May 25 with an address by Bush at the Naval Academy, which will present "the vision of where we need to go as we move into the 21st century," a Pentagon official said yesterday.

Putting aside the "two major war" approach is more a matter of the size of the military than of planning for war. For about a decade, the military has used the possibility of having to fight wars in two places -- Korea and Iraq are the two examples frequently used -- to figure out the minimum number of troops, airplanes, ships and gear needed. Among other things, abandoning the approach will remove a floor that for years has kept the active-duty military at about 1.4 million people.

Defense officials were guarded about describing what will replace the two-war yardstick. One of those involved in the strategy discussion said that the military should instead make sure it has capabilities to deal with a fast-changing world. This formulation puts less emphasis on preparing for conventional warfare and more on handling murkier situations such as defending Taiwan from a Chinese blockade or keeping open the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Cutting personnel also would free up money for the new weapons Rumsfeld wants to buy.

The change in approach promises to affect all the services but appears to have the gravest implications for the Army, the most manpower-intensive service in wartime. The strategy also says the U.S. military needs to focus less on Europe, traditionally the Army's bailiwick, and more on East Asia. The latter, because of its long distances and island nations, has been seen as more of a theater for the Navy and Air Force. It also says the military needs to do a better job of assimilating new information-age technologies and of countering the proliferation of missiles in the Third World.

Only after the overarching strategy is presented will Rumsfeld engage Congress on boosting the defense budget, the official added. "Everyone wants to get the numbers, but you have to do the strategy first, so you have the philosophical underpinning before you start spending money," he said.

But behind the scenes, administration officials already are grappling with three defense budgets simultaneously. They are preparing to ask for a supplement for current spending and also for an amendment to the proposed fiscal 2002 budget before Congress. Additionally, in the coming weeks, Rumsfeld will give the armed services broad guidance that will enable them to begin preparing their fiscal 2003 budgets.

• The Pentagon is expected to ask for approximately $6 billion to $8 billion to supplement current spending of about $296 billion, officials said, with most of the new funds going to readiness and military health care costs. Without a multibillion-dollar supplemental, a congressional source said, "flying hours and [Navy] steaming hours and other essential training missions will have to be curtailed" from July through September, the last quarter of the federal fiscal year.

Rumsfeld said yesterday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the size of the supplemental is "open" and that he would be "discussing that over the coming week" with Bush.

• The administration is also planning for even bigger increases in the coming years as the Defense Department moves toward the changes Rumsfeld envisions. It isn't clear how those increases will be paid for as the administration also is seeking a huge tax cut and other budget changes.

Officials say the administration is preparing a huge amendment to the defense budget for fiscal 2002, which begins Oct. 1. The administration's "placeholder" budget submitted earlier this year sought $310.5 billion. The amendment is expected to boost that by about $20 billion. This will be presented as "the get-well budget" that prepares the military establishment for the sweeping reforms Bush and Rumsfeld have promised, another Pentagon official said last week.

• Finally, the 2003 budget will aim to implement major changes in the size, shape and use of the U.S. military, officials said. This is the budget in which the agenda for radical military reform that Bush laid out during the presidential campaign would take hold.

"It's being called 'the transformation budget,' " a military officer said last week. It is expected to be one of the most controversial defense budgets ever, and already is provoking anxiety and bitterness in the uniformed military.

Although the 2003 budget wouldn't go into effect until 18 months from now, the armed services will begin drafting it this summer, then negotiate their numbers with Rumsfeld through the fall and with the White House around the end of the year.

The 2003 budget also will be the one that begins to "pay for missile defense," another Pentagon official said last week. That remains a large but unknown price tag. Rumsfeld indicated yesterday on CBS's "Face the Nation" that he wants to fund research in possible missile defense systems ranging from sea-based interception to airborne lasers. "All of those things need to be looked at," he said. "We need to look at the use of sea; we need to look at the use of an airborne system and a space sensor."

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz added on CNN's "Late Edition" that the missile defense costs wouldn't be known until more research is done. He indicated he thought sea-based missile defenses, which would be intended to knock down a missile as it is struggling against gravity and so is most vulnerable, would receive the most emphasis.

Many in the top brass worry that Rumsfeld is going to spend so much on missile defense and his other priorities -- operations in space and intelligence-gathering -- that their own weapons programs will suffer. Those fears have been stoked by Rumsfeld's secretive approach to defense reform, with little information being shared with uniformed military.

"It clearly has alarmed the services," said historian Williamson Murray, who recently briefed Pentagon officials on military innovation, his area of expertise. "I heard a huge amount of squealing."

There is much confusion about what Rumsfeld actually will recommend. He appointed about 20 panels to look at everything from what weapons not to buy to how to change personnel policy to how nuclear weapons are commanded and controlled. Some of those panels have made recommendations that contradict each other.

Rumsfeld said at a recent Pentagon meeting that he plans to "cherry pick" from those recommendations, two Pentagon officials said yesterday, keeping only the parts that fit into the larger strategy he is now ready to unveil.